Commerical Real Estate Deal
 

This Issue -- Wednesday, February 2, 2006

Commercial Real Estate Deal - New Life in 2006

by Andy and David Farbman

There's an old Italian proverb that says "Anno nuovo, vita nuova," which means: "A new year brings a new life." While 2005 was full of challenges, as well as opportunities and rewards, we hope that 2006 brings new life and a fresh start to real estate markets, particularly in our home market of Detroit. According to the Federal Reserve, office vacancy rates remained at high levels in southeast Michigan at the end of 2005. The office market looks much rosier when taken as a whole. Nationally, the Fed reports that commercial real estate markets continued to improve in Q4 2005, particularly in San Francisco and New York, where rents were rising, and in Dallas, where landlord concessions were reduced or eliminated altogether. The world's leading office markets boosted rents across the board in 2005, and that trend may well carry over into 2006, with London and Hong Kong leading the way.

The flip side to the current real estate reality is that high vacancy rates in the Detroit region translate into potentially good deals for businesses looking to set up, expand or relocate. An abundance of available space means that bargain hunting tenants can snatch up great space at a low cost. Another positive for the region is Super Bowl XL. This mega-event will bring both dollars and media attention to the area. We are hopeful that Super Bowl XL will act as a catlyst for further development in our region's real estate market.

We wish all of our clients and friends a prosperous 2006 -- may the new year bring you a new life!


All the best,

Andy and David Farbman

 

Residential Trends - Eminent Domain Stirs Continued Debate

The powers of eminent domain -- the ability of the state to take private property -- were expanded by the U.S. Supreme Court ruling in Kelo v. New London (2005). Prior to the Kelo case, governments generally reserved eminent domain for cases where private property was needed to complete construction of a public work -- something that fulfills a "public purpose," such as a bridge or highway. In the Kelo case, the City of New London, Connecticut, sought to acquire private property in order to build, not a bridge or a highway, but a private commercial development. At the heart of the argument was whether or not a commercial development, such as the one proposed in New London, serves a "public purpose." The Court decided that while a commercial development does not serve a public purpose in the same way as a bridge, park or expressway, new commercial development grows the economy and creates jobs: "Promoting economic development is a traditional and long accepted governmental function, and there is no principled way of distinguishing it from the other public purposes the Court has recognized." "The circumstances under which a goverment may use eminent domain have been widened," said Michael Kalil of NAI Farbman. "The decision has not been particularly popular among many homeowners, but it does open the door for ambitious developers to get big projects done that would have been impossible prior to the Supreme Court's ruling in the Kelo case."

 

Finance - Insuring Against the Unthinkable

After 9/11, Congress passed the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act of 2002 (TRIA) to guarantee financial losses up to $100 billion due to acts of terrorism. Federal action was deemed necessary to ensure the continued affordability and availability of property and casualty insurance, and to avoid disruptions to the nation's commercial real estate markets. Just before the 2002 act was set to expire, President George W. Bush signed a two-year extension to the law. No permanent solution has yet been adopted. "Terrorism insurance is a prudent investment for owners of properties in areas that are at high-risk of suffering a terrorist attack," said David Farbman of NAI Farbman. "However, there is one caveat: most terrorism insurance policies do not cover losses due to chemical, biological or nuclear attacks."

 

Health Care - Health Care to go Retail

Something big is looming in health care that may shake up the real estate market -- big as in big box retail. Look for health care to soon show up at your local discount retailer. A new concept called MinuteClinic offers a glimpse of what is to come, offering treatment for common health problems such as strep throat and other minor infections, as well as screenings and immunizations. MinuteClinics, typically located within Target or CVS stores, are open seven days a week. No appointments are necessary, and visits generally take 15 minutes. "Taking the MinuteClinic template a step further, imagine a big-box style health care 'store' that serves as a one-stop shop for preventive care, walk-in treatments, pharmaceuticals, food and dietary supplements, fitness gear, health education and training, vaccinations and more," said Andy Farbman of NAI Farbman. "That seems to be the next logical, yet highly revolutionary, step in health care delivery."

 

Automotive - Mixed Bag for Automakers in 2006

The North American International Auto Show always seems to stoke automotive excitement, and economic chatter. More fire and brimstone are on tap for American automakers in 2006, according to some economists, while others say 2006 should usher in improved economic results for the auto industry. "It's an interesting time for us. It's the best of times on one hand; it's the most challenging of times on the other hand," Paul Ballew, GM's executive director for market and industry analysis, told members of the Detroit Economic Club during the club's 2006 Economic Outlook Luncheon. "We're posting record sales globally, we're at or near record levels in the U.S... We're the single largest consumer product category in the world." But dramatic structural changes in the global auto industry are the primary challenges facing the auto industry circa 2006, according to Ballew. At the same time, a KPMG survey of 140 global auto exectutives revealed that 76 percent of them believe that there will be a major automaker or supplier bankruptcy in 2006. The survey also revealed that 51 percent of the executives polled believe that one of the world's major automakers will be swallowed up by industry consolidation by 2008. The stakes are high-- a 2005 report from the Center for Automotive Research found that the auto industry remains the single largest manufacturing industry in the United States. "It's always difficult to spot a turning point as it is happening," said Andy Gutman of NAI Farbman. "But I believe that the events of 2005: the Delphi bankruptcy, the UAW/GM health care accord, reduced headcount at Ford and GM, as well as the possibility of Toyota becoming the world's #1 automaker in 2006 or 2007, all point to a turning of the tide in the history of the automotive industry. The impact it will have on real estate markets will be huge. The amount of square footage in this country at the industrial, commercial and retail level that is either directly or indirectly linked to the auto industry is staggering."


 

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